A 50:50 forecast from the Historical Referendums and Polls based method
by Stephen Fisher and Alan Renwick. Our forecast has taken a dramatic turn. Last week our polling average had Remain at 51% after setting aside Don’t Knows. It has this week dropped a further two...
View ArticleUpdated combined EU Referendum forecast
Stephen Fisher and Rosalind Shorrocks. This week’s forecast shows a sharp drop in the probability of a Remain win to 60.6%, down from 67.7% last week. Similarly the forecast share of the vote for...
View ArticleForecast update for the Historical Referendums and Polls based method
by Stephen Fisher and Alan Renwick. We offer our condolences to the family and friends of Jo Cox MP. We hope that it is not disrespectful of us to post this updated forecast now that the official...
View ArticleUpdated combined EU Referendum Forecast
by Stephen Fisher and Rosalind Shorrocks. We offer our condolences to the family and friends of Jo Cox MP. We hope that it is not disrespectful of us to post this updated forecast now that the official...
View ArticleWhat is going on in the EU referendum? Some comments based on opinion poll...
by Stephen Fisher. The prominent Leave campaigners are at pains to point out how much they love Europe. Boris Johnston says he is a proud European. Leavers claim to love Europe but hate the EU....
View ArticleDo people tend to vote against change in referendums?
by Stephen Fisher and Alan Renwick. It is commonly asserted by people commenting on the EU referendum that people tend to be risk averse and so vote against change. The Prime Minister appealed to...
View ArticleHow the BBC will be benchmarking the results on EU referendum night
by John Curtice and Stephen Fisher. Referendum night is going to represent something of a departure from usual. There will not be the drama of an exit poll announcement to stir excitement – and...
View ArticleFinal combined EU Referendum forecast
by Stephen Fisher and Rosalind Shorrocks. This forecast is based on data collected late on 22nd June. Yet again this method suggests Remain is most likely to win but there is a considerable chance that...
View ArticleFinal forecast from the Historical Referendums and Polls based method
by Stephen Fisher and Alan Renwick. The polls this week have been better for Remain than they were last week. Since this is our final forecast it makes sense for us to restrict our sample of polls to...
View ArticleWhy did the UK vote to leave the European Union?
by Stephen Fisher. It is not hard to see why Leave won. Evidence from numerous opinion polls showed that there was a clear majority for Leave on the basis of concerns about immigration and beliefs that...
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